Is a Forecaster Job Easy?

It appears that the easiest kind of occupation is that of a forecaster. If a dismal future is forecast and remedial action is taken, the forecaster can claim disaster was avoided because he or she was listened to. However, if the pessimism was well founded, the forecaster can take credit for the ability to predict future events. (Frost & Sullivan Written Test)

Discuss how logically persuasive you find the above argument.

In presenting your point of view:

• Analyze the sort of reasoning used and its supporting evidence.
• State what further evidence, if any, would make the argument more sound and convincing or would make you evaluate its conclusion better.

Directions:
Write a clear, logical and well organized response to the above issue or argument in the form of a short essay. Your answer should fit on 3 sides of A4 size paper.


My Answer: (Shyt! My answer was only 2-page long, so just refer la, improve your answer to a much more lengthier one. Good luck, Frost & Sullivan applicants)


When Microsoft's artificially intelligent digital assistant Cortana has accurately predicted the outcome of every match of World Cup 2014 elimination rounds, it does say something on how easily a forecaster’s job can be replaced with computer artificial intelligence (AI). Perhaps what still make a good forecaster best is his or her strong intuition and the ability to look into intangible factors such as emotion connection. As long as a computer cannot observe the connection between worldly events and people’s state of emotion, a human forecaster still get a share of limelight.

When one receives forecast results, which are predictive, one can either do something to avoid the undesirable outcomes, or do nothing about it. Forecast normally takes place in several domains, and each domain affect certain groups of people. In the following, we shall explore each domain.

Domain 1: Doing Something to Avoid Undesirable Outcomes

Take for instances, in Malaysia examination system, there will be publication companies rolling out sets of examination forecast papers to help students pass their exam with flying color, so to speak. To add some degrees of credibility, publication companies would normally associate their question setters with their vast experiences in teaching certain subjects, as well as quoting the standard of their exclusive forecast papers for having approval from the Malaysia’s examination council. Once students knew about how credible and convincing they are, they would inevitably buy from the publication and attempt as many forecast papers as possible, because the cost of doing nothing is too huge to bear. Publication generates good income stream from this.

Domain 2: Doing Nothing

People are stubborn and also could be perceived as being loyal to a something they hold strong belief in, to such an extent that they do not want to make a change of choice even if a forecast suggests otherwise. Yet, their decisions may not always be unfavourable, they could be right. Take for an instance, despite Shaheen, the Arabian camel has predicted that Argentina will win the Fifa World Cup 2014, bookies in the betting games still favour Germany. Their stubbornness was paid off in the end. And all those previous match outcomes which were accurately predicted by the camel may not earn full recognition for its mere one-time failure. Would one goes back to it for predictive result in the next Fifa World Cup? Doubtful.

Would you carry an umbrella when the weather forecast says it would rain tomorrow? Weather forecast and the likes, are forecasts taken most lightly by people. Some don’t believe it, some were perhaps overly optimistic.

From here we could also conclude that human’s decision are driven by fear or risks and emotion. There are times emotion would outweigh the analytical part of explanation to a phenomenon, take for such is the market share prediction. The Emotional Theory in stock market is the recent evidence that shows the relationship between emotion and stock market price. Stock prices may not represent the underlying value of the stock; they are driven up and down by individual and group of people’s emotions. Says, an investor who loves Genting stock so much that he could see past its shortcomings and other obviously better opportunities, the effect could be disastrous when he takes no heed for his personal stock broker’s predictive advice.

Hence, the forecaster’s job is not the easiest one. While having to cope with pressure coming from artificial intelligence, he or she has to also find the right channel to reach out the crowd who would see his/her service as a kind of treasure trove. He or she has to build reputation over a period of time. Once people believe in you, their stubbornness could be now favour your prediction, too. It is a challenging yet rewarding job.